Суперпрезидентский режим Порошенко укрепляется прямо пропорционально падению популярности у избирателей. И если власть не пойдет на перезагрузку выборами, ее ждут уже не политтехнологии, а настоящая народная буря. В любом случае инициатива переходит к несистемным лидерам.

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Короткий, но мудрый анализ социально-политической ситуации в Украине и прогноз на будущее от известного политичеcкого эксперта Андрея Золотарева.

Вопреки задекларированному курсу на децентрализацию государственного управления, П.Порошенко стремится сконцентрировать возможный максимум властных полномочий в руках президентской вертикали.

Президент полностью контролирует силовой блок. Ему удалось добиться назначения генпрокурором политически близкого Ю.Луценко, под его доминирующим влиянием находятся СБУ, Нацбанк, судебная система. Добровольческие батальоны интегрированы в МО, Нацгвардию и МВД.

Курс на децентрализацию фактически заблокирован. Сомнительными выглядят перспективы успешной и полноценной реализации судебной реформы. Концентрацией властных полномочий Президент пытается компенсировать падение электоральной поддержки. П.Порошенко не удалось утвердиться в глазах общества в качестве реформатора и лидера страны. Критика реализуемого им курса становится мейнстримом для политических лидеров, экспертов, журналистов, внешних наблюдателей.

Тем не менее, П.Порошенко не потерял легитимность. В первую очередь, потому, что не обозначилась четкая альтернатива ему в качестве главы государства. Вышедшая благодаря популистской риторике на лидирующие электоральные позиции Ю.Тимошенко не рассматривается ни элитами, ни обществом, ни внешними центрами влияния как качественная альтернатива нынешнему Президенту. Другие потенциальные претенденты на президентство тоже пока недостаточно убедительны. А.Яценюк после отставки взял паузу в политической активности, В.Кличко находится в тени главы государства, он недостаточно успешен в качестве столичного мэра. А.Садовый находится в серьезном репутационном кризисе.

В Верховной Раде формально существует коалиция, но результативные голосования, в большинстве случаев, обеспечиваются ситуативным большинством, путем привлечения голосов «болота», «новой оппозиции» или Оппоблока.

Общество, требующее радикальных изменений в отношениях власти и гражданина, переживает период разочарования политиками, пришедшими во власть на революционной волне. Согласно разным соцопросам от 76% до 82% респондентов убеждены, что страна движется в неправильном направлении. Высокий уровень негативных оценок обеспечен за счет двух больших групп: системных противников действующей власти и ее недавних сторонников, неудовлетворенных темпами и характером преобразований

Кроме того, серьезными факторами общественной депрессии являются продолжающаяся война на востоке страны, падение уровня жизни, отсутствие четко обозначенного проекта будущего Украины.

Заметен запрос на абстрактного «сильного лидера» с широкими властными полномочиями. Такая ситуация способствует развитию популистских партийных проектов.

И тенденция к росту восприимчивости популизма и «простых решений» достаточно очевидна. В ближайшей перспективе именно несистемные лидеры будут формировать политическую повестку.

При высокой динамике политических процессов в Украине, в условиях появления «черных лебедей» чуть ли не стаями, риск того, что парламент «не досидит» до конца каденции, очень высок. Но если выборы и состоятся, то не раньше осени 2017г.

Неспособность политического класса удовлетворить эти требования – главный фактор сохранения риска «третьего Майдана», «новой революции», «переворота» и других форм неэлекторальной смены власти.

В целом, по сравнению с ситуацией годичной-двухлетней давности, риск искусственного Майдана снизился. Если украинская революция выйдет на еще один виток – это будет по-настоящему. Никаких технологий! Только хардкор!

 

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125 thoughts on “АНДРЕЙ ЗОЛОТАРЕВ: «ЕСЛИ УКРАИНСКАЯ РЕВОЛЮЦИЯ ВЫЙДЕТ НА ЕЩЕ ОДИН ВИТОК — ЭТО БУДЕТ ПО-НАСТОЯЩЕМУ. ТОЛЬКО ХАРДКОР!»”

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  4. Apart from the 5th Amendment issue (and the fact that almost everyone would report it anyway), and the alleged fact that most jurisdictions make you wait 24 hours before reporting a missing child (on the very plausible grounds that almost all of 'em turn up within a day)…laws named after a prominent victim are ALWAYS BAD IDEAS.

  5. Man, I totally agree with all your ‘Should wins’ – I have the same feelings (except for Potter?!). I really liked lil bro Affleck in Assassination of Jesse James. If it wasn’t for Javier Bardem… Thoroughly enjoyed your Oscar pitches. Keep up the good work!

  6. mai georgica-senzationalu’, tu esti ala care acum 2-3 luni anuntai ca a luat foc un mall din Bacau?, si pana la urma ce a rezultat: mall-ul nu avea la momentul respectiv nici fundatie sapata iar focul era doar un pic de fum iesit dintr-un tomberon, ai grija ca raspandirea de informatii false e infractiune 

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  8. You can, by the way, continue to pretend that only poor ignorant Whites can be racists, but it won’t serve you very well to understand what’s going on in the world.I no longer care if someone calls me a racist. The word has no power over me. Likewise Nazi. I am neither poor nor ignorant and I can assure you that neither are all the non-White racists around me.

  9. Tire shops HAAAAAAAATE any sort of “fix a tire in a can” stuff. I don’t use it, but I have heard stories about friends being charged extra for shops to work on tires that had any type of that product used in it. Just something to think? about.

  10. C’tait justement une façon de pitcher un wrench dans l’engrenage question qu’on retombepas à tourner en rond avec les c’est la faute de…Chu ben d’accords avec ce commentaire là par contre

  11. An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a coworker who was doing a little homework on this. And he actually ordered me breakfast simply because I discovered it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending time to talk about this issue here on your web site.

  12. “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

  13. It was probably far harder for you than for Tori. You must have been exhausted from the hospital. Too bad it was right before going to work but I am so glad that she was able to go home pretty quickly!Keep an eye on the mail!

  14. chrid dit :Il nous casse les pieds avec leur SOS racisme… celui qui condamne tout racisme sauf celui des blancs?! Y’a comme de la discrimination non? A Denis le rouge, tout les frontistes ne ricanent pas des camps, tout les frontistes ne se moquent pas de la terre entière… c’est un peu comme les arabes… il ne faut pas mettre tout le monde dans le même sac!! :*))))) lol toi tu es a coup sur un FDG!!

  15. Brenda Christina comentou em 18 de agosto de 2011 às 21:03. Oi Julia! Será que você poderia me indicar um manual de cabelo? Vou fazer umas fotos com minha turma de formatura na praia, às 15hrs, de vestido branco, descalça e tá ventando muito aqui em Fortaleza…pode dizer só o nome que eu procuro no blog! bjs e obrigada!

  16. Today your blog corresponds with other readings I have been doing on solitude. I’ll miss reading your posts, but I hope God speaks to you out of your silence. Perhaps there is a message in all of this for me as well.

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  18. , a lot of east Asian celebrities have undergone double-eyelid surgery, and I wonder how many of them were featured in the survey.I always considered Eurasian women to be extremely attractive, and I realized that this must because a great number of them have round Caucasian eyes and high Asian cheekbones, the best of both worlds.

  19. so, nun einen netten kochabend mit freundinnen hinter mir….echt toll….ein paar kreative ideenmit wok und so gehts super und zum raclette,,,,haben ne mnge ausprobiertund ich muss sagen wir haben feststellen können, zitronenngras ist ihhhhhhhhhh, das thais gemüse schmeckt nicht ganz so tollprovencial ist aber klasseman kann das gemüse auch toll als beilage bei fisch essen oder zu fleisch und kartoffeln, da gibts ja so viele möglichkeiten

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  21. But if Brown was wrong with his assessment (six months recession in 2008) does that not cast doubt on his solution? A lesson from the Tories is that it took the fourth leader after Major (and one who was not in Parliament when they lost) before they were re-elected. Who, from the 2010 intake looks like a leader?

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  23. Mi propongo di leggere il libro. Penso ci siano 2 approcci possibili al dialogo: uno più terra-terra, che però premette la necessità che gli ebrei ammettano che la condanna a morte di Gesù sia stato un “errore giudiziario”! Il secondo approccio è partire dalla constatazione di Gamaliele in Atti 5. Dopotutto il libro potrebbe pure concludere che la comunanza di Ebrei e Cristiani è… un dato di fatto!

  24. Rolling Release es más bien como un status (por llamarlo de alguna manera), las distribución debes escogerla tu, porque en teoría todas entregan la misma facilidad, tener un sistema actualizado sin necesidad de volver a instalar.Tienes a Gentoo, Sabayon, Arch Linux, Chakra, PCLinuxOS y LMDE entre las más conocidas y usadas, pero existen otras.salu2

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  26. ecwaaah postingan yang sangat bagus dan sangat memberikan referensi,semoga ilmu ini dapat bermanfaat bagi semuanya yah,kalau sempat bisa kunjungi blog saya diterimakasih ^^

  27. I have been to Savannah – and honestly, any one of those photos there could have been taken in New Orleans / LA in general. Funny, I take that for granted and treasure the inch of snow we get every 5 years or more. And you've had all the snow you can handle in a lifetime, no doubt. I do realize how beautiful the giant mossy oaks are. We have the most beautiful park here with many such trees. I haven't read that book, but did enjoy the movie (as it was my introduction to Jude Law, and whoa. Jude Law.).Lovely bracelet, BTW!♥

  28. Hehe legal o po,st mas eu não uso autobronzeador, nem bronzeador. Sou do tipo que usa sempre bloqueador solar fator 60 pra manter a cor branquela, que eu gosto. Adoro praia, sol e calor mas tenho hipersensibilidade ao sol, além das sardas acabo adquirindo dermatite em dias de sol mais forte até mesmo com bloqueador. Então aprendi a gostar da minha brancura kkkkkk

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  32. Olá Maryanne! Tudo bem?Meus pais virão me visitar em São Francisco e gostaria de programar um tour para eles já que eles não falam inglês. Eles chegarão dia 21 de outubro e voltarão para o Brasil no dia 03 de Novembro. Você teria algum dia disponível e quais os tours estariam disponíveis nessa época?Agradeço

  33. Plus exactement :…Sachant qu’ Israël en profitera pour aller piquer les réserves de gaz des Libanais ?Donc, surtout ne rien faire !Vous dites n’ importe quoi (çà, ça reste ! )

  34. Ah, lo que no sabes es que las altas ventas de wal mart y el crecimiento de soriana-gigante, han hecho mella en la comercial mexicana y nadamás no la libra! Por eso llegó en junio!Eso, al menos es algo de lo mucho que me deja leer los peris todos los días!saludos!

  35. It seems you like the idea of throwing out the baby with the bathwater. Most of us understand that social programs promise too much, cannot in their present form be funded adequately, and must have adjustments. Destroying the programs altogether as you suggest is not a Republican, or a Democratic, goal. Was this answer helpful?

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  37. Det går framåt, han har mycket kvar att lära sig. Han har varit lite dålig i magen men verkar piggare nu i alla fall. Jag hoppas bara att det går bra hos pappa över jul, med katterna alltså. Vad fint ni har gjort i allrummet förresten. Kram

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  39. Olha, na formação profissional que até vai abranger os pais, vê lá tua a chatice que dizem que "Não inclui a formação muito específica dirigida a determinados grupos de profissionais (ex: projectistas, arquitectos, urbanistas, profissionais de socorro pré‐hospitalar – como os TAS, TAT)"

  40. Bože jednou vykat jednou tykat…Ježíši Kriste, to je tedy Å¡rumec. Doufám, že se S co nejdříve uzdraví a pÅ™ijde opÄ›t mezi nás, vyÅ™iď ji Jakube přání vÅ¡eho dobrého. MÄ›ly jsme spolu určité názorové neshody, ale na tom není nic divného, základ pluralitní demokracie je svoboda a respekt k jiným názorům.

  41. Good Day sir! I am a student of MSU-GenSan chapter, a 3rd year student taking up Bachelor of Arts in Political Science. gusto ko po sanang magtanong kung ako po ba ay matatanggap sa trabaho, kung ako po ay baka sakaling mag aapply sa inyong opisina o related establishment? gusto ko pong tumulong sa mga tao, lalong lalo na sa ating lungsod kaya’t pinili ko po ang propesyong ito. I’m hoping for your kind reply, and magandang GenSan!

  42. While they are catching a lot of flak(most deservedly). I think they do deserve a little credit for coming together behind an idea even though it doesn’t look like it was thought through fully. If the democrats who have a supermajority had done this a little more often some really good changes could have happened. One thought that comes to mind is the bill that would have allowed young people at the age of 17 the ability to vote in primaries if they were going to be 18 by the general election. Im sure their are others some other people could think of too.

  43. wardrobe bleh laa pinjam meminjam antara adik beradik… bajet pakai cm gitu ala2 superstar ker…mcm victoria beckham? nicole scherzinger pun gi teman lewis hamilton dier xde laa seketat mcm ni..loose jer walaupun bahagian atas still seksi…Well-loved.

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  46. Thanks Sultan – your lucid definition of the origins and state of islam settles a whole lot of issues in my mind, and for that I'm very grateful. And more resolved against this satanic cult. The moon and the sickle and the smiley face – spot the odd one out.Best,Mike

  47. Ce sont les femmes aussi qui prennent en main le conflit israélo-palestiniens. Des femmes deux camps se réunissent et oeuvre ensemble à une hypothétique paix future. C’est ce genre d’initiative qu’il faut encourager plutôt que le discours viril qui ne mène nulle part.

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  51. Apesar disto, eu não mudo a minha opinião que neste momento há melhores jogadores a contratar e mais baratos do que ele. Deixem-no lá estar em Itália por muitos anos e que quando estiver na "reforma" que ainda venha fazer uma perninha ao SCP.

  52. Perhaps an online petition would be more effective (including names and addresses of signers) in attracting more people to support this effort. Letter writing is also effective, so I am submitting a letter as well.

  53. *Nath : ça me touche quand tu m’écris “notre Sophie” ! Oui c’est bien moi ! Merci pour tes féliciations et moi aussi j’attends avec impatience la saison des tomates pour faire plein de nouvelles recettes en plus de celles que j’ai réalisées pour le dîner et que l’on me demande tous les jours depuis la diffusion. amitiés.

  54. 137 Posted by 6e on 11July 10, 2012 at 1b7:04 pm 40 3a4Donna,I’m going to start visualization now. WOW, this is amazing Donna. It is funny thought how sometimes things just work out or they work itself out. How exciting and scary. I love change, it’s like a little adventure that spices up your life.. So are you going to be doing lots of travelling. slow travel, live abroad for a bit of time. Both?Annie Andre recently posted..

  55. Comparteixo tot el que dius. Sento molta afinitat amb la teva reflexió. Si finalment es publica aquest escrit i tinc ocasió de publicar altres escrits semblants i generar així un debat públic, faré tot el que estigui al meu abast per cerca amb altres persones i organitzacions una nova perspectiva sindical.

  56. Glad to see you wrote the Elevator post you mentioned earlier. I totally agree with these interactive guidelines. Now let’s talk about being at the supermarket. If I am looking at the steaks then “I” am looking at the steaks, not the old lady who pretty much moved me out of the way and grabbed the one I had my eye on. I almost tripped her…almost.

  57. DaviMack:Umm… along the lines of the DUH category, wouldn’t that have been the same info that’s been around, like, since Elvis? I mean, like, our parents didn’t know that from their own experience?As , “boredom sets into the boring mind….”

  58. I am sure of almost nothing in the spiritual realms except that we are called to love, but some Pagan I am! My mind almost always goes to Christian Scripture. 😉 Matthew 25: 44-45 “They also will answer, ‘Lord, when did we see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or needing clothes or sick or in prison, and did not help you?’ 45 “He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me.’ I was not aware of Lincoln's quote on this subject. Thanks for bringing it to us.

  59. Acho o fim da picada esse babacas do PT ficarem cantando de galo com essa historinha pra boi dormir da Petrobrás. Devia ter vergonha dos preços praticados nos combustiveis aqui no Brasil. Se somos os tais poderosos do PEtroleo pq não abaixa o preço dessa M…. de gasolina que consumimos aqui? O mais engraçado é que tem um bando de babacas que acreditam neles. ACORDEM!!!!!! VAMOS MUDAR ESSA HISTÓRIA!

  60. Julia comentou em 14 de setembro de 2011 às 22:50. Oiii Julia!Qual o nome dessa sombra bem clarinha que você usou no começo? Estou procurando uma nesse tom …Muito obrigada!E o make está lindo!!!!!!!!! Bjss

  61. I especially love that first shot – It almost made me feel dizzy!!!Thank you so much for your thoughts, prayers and kind words, dear Tina. Life is so hard sometimes, and the love shown by my blogging family makes those hard times so much easier to bear. Bless you, my heart friend!!!

  62. / lo malo de si me ganara la estancia…es que no tengo ropa ad hoc para el campo de golf…pero bueno, podré superar ser el bicho raro mientras me arrugo como pasa en el spa!felices fiestas!!!!

  63. SHUT.TO.THE.UP! I have been running around like a crazy woman all dern day, finally sat at the computer (talking myself in and out of that brownie) and BACK THE TRUCK UP! I was so excited that my "Name That Movie House" "caught your eye"!Thank you so much, it made my night.So, can you name the houses? Have a wonderful weekend.Kerry

  64. HOLA:YO VOY A VER ESTA PELCIULA PORQUE INDEPENDIENTEMENTE QUE MARIO CASAS NO ME GUSTE COMO PERSONA RECONOZCO QUE ME GUSTA COMO ACTOR EN TODAS LAS PELICULAS QUE HE VISTO DE ÉL ( NCLUIDO EL CORTO DE JAUME BALAGUERO ” MIEDO ” EN DONDE RECONOZCO QUE HACE UN PAPEL SOBERBIO ).QUIERO IR A VERLA PORQUE BLANCA SUAREZ EN UNA DE NUESTRAS GRANDES ACTRICES ESPAÑOLAS DE NUEVA GENERACION ( DEMOSTRADO MAS QUE DE SOBRA EN ” EL INTERNADO ” ) Y PORQUE TENGO MUCHAS GANAS DE ECHARME UNAS RISAS CON UN PELICULA ESPAÑOLA AL ESTILO KINKI…JAJA!! GRACIAS

  65. “going out thru the channel is a bit dicey, because sometimes it closes out.”I thanked him to having taught me the word dicey, but I actually think that it’s mostly up to you to time it right. I’m pretty good at chicken jibes, which I would call smart jibes, instead.Let’s see if I can avoid damages today (Friday) too…

  66. Malin, you're hilarious. Love the new table and I too am totally envious of that chair! You know how I complain about my beading aches & pains 😉 Lorelei's tin snippets are super cute as well. Can't wait to see how you use them.

  67. 9-7-12cristi spune: Cand dau play la un film pe vlc sau bsplayer mi se vede negru tot.. pe youtube si pe altele merge dar cand dau la un film numai negru .. ma poate ajuta cineva ? -12V-a ajutat acest raspuns?

  68. The Absent Game…Amongst me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, such as Sansas, iRivers, iPods (basic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few a long time I’ve settled down to one line of players….

  69. Excellent online site, everything that I found myself searching for! Only if typically the posts were a bit longer not to mention covered various pictures for much more, I’d personally wear haven!

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  71. La democrácia del "peperebé" (así llamaba mi abuela a las cosas sin importancia).Evidentemente, hay que congraciarse con "todoslossantos" que si no le llama al presi "maricom-plejines" y ahora todas las ayudas son pocas. ¿no has visto que ya Rouco ha prohibido la propaganda de huelgas, manifestaciones y demás que vayan contra el gobierno?…se han unido,mientras la izquierda se divide.Y, espera, que Andalucía va a ser la puntilla para que sigan creciendo.

  72. José Miguel…me pareció muy buena tu presentación y la información que has tenido la gentileza de regarlárnosla…a mí personalmente me “cae de perla” como decimos en mi tierra, porque estoy por ingresar a una empresa que cumple con TODOS los puntos que mencionaste y le? he visto solamente un pero, el mismo que tendré que averiguarlo y que es cada cuánto la persona puede reconsumir el producto…sé que es factible como dos veces al mes pero me gustaría que sea más veces por supuesto! Gracias!

  73. Nokia Web Browser | Nokia 9300saya salah satu penonton setia dua dunia trans -7 saya pingin jam tayangnya di tambah karna menurut saya banyak ppesan morlnya yg bisa saya petik dan pembawa acaranya ust:hakim memang lebih menguasai mengali informasi terhadao mahluk lain[]

  74. 2人の子どもがいますが、不妊治療は未経験です。こんな私ではコメントする資格もないかもしれませんが、、、、。今、私はギャグエイジになった子どもと日々闘っています。受験を視野に入れて塾に行かせ、周りを見れば優秀な子ばかり。なぜ自分の子だけこんなにだめんなだろうと頭を悩ませたり。子供が出来たら出来たで悩みや葛藤の毎日です。自分を犠牲にする日々です。子どもの成績で親が評価されることもあります。バカにされることもあります。「自分」はどこに行ってしまったんだろうとむなしくなる時もあります。兄夫婦は結婚当初から子どもはもたない主義で、現在41歳。結婚以来とっても仲が良く共働き。都内の高級住宅地に住み、毎年海外旅行に出かけています。私は専業主婦だし、子どもの教育費で旅行もままなりません。人には色々な幸せの形があるんだと思います。子どもがいてもいなくても、それぞれ与えられた、選んだ、人生を納得して、楽しんで歩いて行けたらいいですね。

  75. Hello! I could have sworn I’ve been to this blog before but after browsing through some of the post I realized it’s new to me. Anyways, I’m definitely happy I found it and I’ll be book-marking and checking back frequently!

  76. محمد عطية قال:اكيد بيختلف السعر حسب كل دولة وعملتها انا شايف الافضل ان الواحد يشترى من متجر زى امازون او جيم ستوب السعر هايبقى بالدولار وثابت انا منتظر يوم 13 على احر من الجمر

  77. DILUVIOS 2010……PROYECTO COLEGIOS Y UNIVERSIDADES……….POR QUE UNA PUESTA CERRADA SIEMPRE TE LLEVARA A UNA ABIERTA……2010 AÑO DE LA CONQUISTA Y LA EXTENCIONes un proyecto…..que vamos a estar realizando con los chicos de la iglesia

  78. First things first, I love your blog. I've been finding it quite inspiring! My investment pieces right now are mostly shoes and coats. I have bought a few pairs of Chie Miharas and Fluevogs in the last year and I just can't seem to get enough of Soia and Kyo coats! A few years ago I bought a great cream wool shift dress that I love. Nicely tailored tweed pants, and unique dresses from local designers are definitely pieces that I have kept for a long time and get a lot of wear out of.

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